脑卒中发病风险logistic回归综合评估模型研究———基于亚洲人群研究数据

Integrated assessment model by logistic regression for stroke-based on the evidence-based data of Asian population

摘要:

目的：基于Meta分析结果，探讨亚洲人群脑卒中发病风险综合评估模型。方法：根据人群脑卒中发病危险因素的队列研究和病例对照研究资料，利用Meta分析方法对其发病危险因素进行合并，根据合并统计量比值比（odds ratio，OR），建立lo－gistic回归综合评估模型。结果：纳入7个队列研究和21个病例对照研究，包含17个危险因素，通过数据筛选，有10个危险因素进入本次模型，包括：总胆固醇（total cholesterol，TC）≥6.00 mmol/L、收缩压（systolic blood pressure，SBP）≥140 mmHg、高血压病史、糖尿病病史、冠心病史、脑卒中家族史、吸烟、长期饮酒、长期运动和高盐饮食，其综合危险度分别为：1.99、5.09、3.97、1.82、2.10、2.64、1.69、1.37、0.60和1.95。结论：本次研究以系统评价为基础，建立了亚洲人群脑卒中风险评估模型，有效地避免了人群样本量偏少的因素，模型具有循证医学证据，为预防亚洲人群脑卒中的发病具有现实意义。

Abstract:

Objective：To explore the integrated assessment model for stroke risk among Asian population based on the results of Meta analysis. Methods：Based on the data in the Ｃohort study and case-control study of stroke，Meta analysis was used to combine risk factors. Integrated assessment model by logistic regression was built based on the pooled odds ratio（OR）. Results：Seven Cohort stud－ies and 21 case-control studies were included in this study including 17 risk factors. After screening，10 factors were admitted in the model，including total cholesterol≥6.00 mmol/L，systolic blood pressure≥140 mmHg，hypertension，diabetes，coronary heart disease，family history of stroke，smoking，long-term drinking，long-term exercises and high salt diet and the pooled ORs were 1.99，5.09，3.97，1.82，2.10，2.64，1.69，1.37，0.60 and 1.95. Conclusions：Integrated assessment model of stroke among Asian population is built through the systematic review. This model，based on data of evidence-based medicine，successfully avoids the bias of small sample and is of practical significance in the prevention of stroke among Asian population.