新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情发展区域差异的聚类分析

Cluster analysis on epidemic status of COVID-19 among different provinces

摘要:

目的：对新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的地域性差异进行综合评价，对疫情的严重程度进行合理分类。方法：采用系统聚类方法对累计确诊病例、累计死亡病例和累计治愈病例的发展趋势进行分类；采用聚类热图进行直观显示和分析。结果：第一类：湖北，湖北的确诊人数（56 249例）远远高于其他地区的总和（12 335例）；第二类：河南，河南确诊人数（1 231例）处于全国第三位，是湖北以外死亡人数最多（13例）的地区；第三类：江西、浙江、江苏、上海、四川、安徽、湖南、广东，这些地区确诊人数靠前，病死率较低；第四类：山东、重庆、北京、广西、甘肃、天津、黑龙江、海南、河北，这些地区确诊人数处于居中位置，治愈率和病死率也居中；第五类：山西、云南、福建、陕西、辽宁、贵州、吉林，这些地区确诊人数靠后，死亡人数很少（该类地区合计仅3例）；第六类：西藏、台湾、青海、宁夏、澳门、内蒙古、香港、新疆，这些地区确诊人数很少（均少于71例），死亡人数共2例。结论：最需要严格控制的地区为湖北和河南特高流行地区，需要密切注意的地区为江西、浙江、江苏、上海、四川、安徽、湖南、广东等高流行地区；西藏、台湾、青海、宁夏、澳门、内蒙古、香港、新疆等地区为相对安全的低流行地区；其他地区属中度流行地区。

Abstract:

Objective：To give the comprehensive evaluation on epidemic status of coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） among dif－ferent provinces and classify all provinces into reasonable classes in accordance with the severity. Methods：Systematic clustering method was used to classify the development trend of cumulative confirmed cases，cumulative death cases and cumulative cured cases. Clustering heat maps were used for visual display and analysis. Results：The first class included Hubei. A total of 56 249 con－firmed cases in Hubei were much more than the total of 12 335 cases in other regions. The second class included Henan. Confirmed cases of 1 321 in Henan ranked to the third in the country and the death number was the largest（13 cases） except Hubei. The third class included Jiangxi，Zhejiang，Jiangsu，Shanghai，Sichuan，Anhui，Hunan，and Guangdong. These provinces had a higher confirmed cases but lower mortality compared with the following classes. The fourth class included Shandong，Chongqing，Beijing，Guangxi，Gansu，Tianjin，Heilongjiang，Hainan and Hebei. These provinces had a median confirmed patients，cure rate and mortality. The fifth class included Shanxi，Yunnan，Fujian，Shaanxi，Liaoning，Guizhou and Jilin. These provinces had the a lower confirmed patients and very few death cases（only 3 cases in this class）. The sixth class included Tibet，Taiwan，Qinghai，Ningxia，Macau，Inner Mongolia，Hong Kong and Xinjiang. These provinces had few confirmed cases（less than 71 cases） and only 2 death cases. Conclusion：In summary，areas that need to be closely controlled are Hubei and Henan，where can be regarded as extremely high-endemic areas. Areas that need to be closely monitored are Jiangxi，Zhejiang，Jiangsu，Shanghai，Sichuan，Anhui，Hunan and Guangdong，where can be regarded as high-endemic areas. Tibet，Taiwan，Qinghai，Ningxia，Macau，Inner Mongolia，Hong Kong and Xinjiang are relatively safe and can be regarded as low-endemic areas，while other areas are moderately endemic areas.