广东省COVID-19疫情的空间流行病学分析

Spatial epidemiological analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in Guangdong Province

摘要:

目的：基于地理信息系统，探索广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎（coronavirus disease 2019，COVID-19）的空间分布特征及社会因素对疫情流行程度的影响。方法：收集广东省报告病例信息，探索其发病重心轨迹的迁移情况、空间相关性；通过地理加权回归模型探索人口密度、人均国内生产总值、同期内人口迁入指数和市内出行强度这4个社会因素对COVID-19流行程度的影响。结果：至截止日，广东省累计报告确诊病例1 331例，新增病例流的重心轨迹始终在珠三角地区迁移。自2月2日，COVID-19存在显著的空间聚集性。社会因素对COVID-19流行具有正相关关系。结论：广东省COVID-19疫情虽然存在空间聚集性，但是高发聚集区较少且局限在珠三角地区。此外，人均国内生产总值、人口流入指数及市内出行情况这3个社会因素对珠三角地区疫情的影响较大。

Abstract:

Objective：To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） in Guangdong Province，and to investigate the effect of social factors on the epidemic degree based on geographic information system. Methods：Re－ported case information of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province from January 19 to February 18，2020 was collected. The migration of epidemic gravity center and the spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 were explored. Data on four social factors were collected： population density，GDP per capita，population migration index and city travel intensity during the same period. Then，the influence of social fac－tors on the prevalence of COVID-19 was explored by geographically weighted regression model. Results：Up to February 18，a total of 1，331 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong Province and the epidemic gravity center of COVID-19 was always migrating in the Pearl River Delta region. Since February 2，the COVID-19 showed obvious spatial aggregation. A positive correlation was observed between the epidemic of COVID-19 relationship and social factors. Conclusion：Although spatial clusters of COVID-19 in Guangdong still exist，high-incidence areas are few and are limited to the Pearl River Delta. In addition，three social factors including GDP per capita，population inflow index and city travel have a greater impact on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Pearl River Delta region.