中国女性卵巢癌流行现状和趋势及预测分析

Analysis of prevalence, trends and prediction of ovarian cancer among women in China

摘要:

目的： 对1990至2019年中国女性卵巢癌流行趋势及危险因素进行分析，为我国卵巢癌的预防提供更科学的依据。方法： 从全球疾病负担2019数据库获取中国及其他地区卵巢癌发病、死亡及伤残调整寿命年指标的估计数和标准化率，比较评估中国卵巢癌的流行负担及危险因素变化。用GLOBOCAN库对2020至2040年中国卵巢癌发病及死亡人数进行预测。结果： 1990至2019年，中国大陆和中国台湾省卵巢癌的年龄标准化发病率分别由2.56/10万和4.72/10万增至4.54/10万和8.68/10万，年龄标准化死亡率由1.76/10万和2.63/10万增至2.77/10万和3.84/10万，增幅超过全球、日本及新加坡。其中，50~54岁年龄组女性发病人数最多，发病率的峰值出现在70~74岁。2019年卵巢癌死亡的三大危险因素分别是高空腹血糖、高体质指数和职业性石棉暴露。30年间，中国卵巢癌的年龄标准化伤残调整寿命年率（disability-adjusted life year，DALY）随社会人口学指数（socio-demographic index，SDI）增加而增加。此外，据GLOBOCAN数据库预测，中国卵巢癌疾病负担会持续加重，预计到2040年，发病人数较2020年增加17.9%，死亡人数增加33.0%。结论： 中国女性卵巢癌疾病负担仍然较重，且在不断上升，需要针对不同年龄段及风险人群采取相应的有效预防措施，加强对高风险人群的监测，以进一步降低疾病负担。

Abstract:

Objective: To analyze the epidemic trends and risk factors of ovarian cancer in Chinese women from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a more scientific basis for the prevention of ovarian cancer in China. Methods: The estimated numbers and age-standardized rates of incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years of ovarian cancer in China and other areas were obtained from the Global Disease Burden 2019 database, and the changes of epidemic burden and risk factors of ovarian cancer in China were compared and evaluated. The incident numbers and death numbers of ovarian cancer in China from 2020 to 2040 were predicted by the GLOBOCAN database. Results: Mainland China and Taiwan province in China had increased the incidence of ovarian cancer from 2.56/100 000 and 4.72/100 000 to 4.54/100 000 and 8.68/100 000 during 1990 to 2019, and the age standardized mortality increased from 1.76/100 000 and 2.63/100 000 to 2.77/100 000 and 3.84/100 000, which increased by more than half of the global, including Japanese and Singapore. Among them, women aged 50-54 had the highest incidence and the peak was 70-74 years old. The three major risk factors for ovarian cancer death in 2019 were high fasting blood glucose, high body mass index and occupational asbestos exposure. In the past 30 years, the age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates (DALY) of ovarian cancer in China increased with rising socio-demographic index (SDI). In addition, according to the prediction of GLOBOCAN database, the disease burden of ovarian cancer in China would continue to increase. By 2040, the incident cases of patients would be expected to increase by 17.9% and the number of deaths would increase by 33.0% compared with 2020. Conclusion: The disease burden of ovarian cancer among women in China is still heavy and rising. It is necessary to take corresponding effective preventive measures for different age groups and risk groups and strengthen the monitoring of high-risk groups, so as to further reduce the disease burden.