Application of grey model in forecasting incidences of lung cancer

Abstract:

Objective：To apply the grey model（GM） in predicting the incidences of lung cancer in Zigong city and to explore the applicable predictive method with fluctuant data. Methods：The conventional GM（1，1），dynamic GM（1，1） and metabolic GM（1，1） were established respectively based on the incidences of lung cancer in Zigong city from 1985 to 2009. The most applicable mortality forecasting model was applied to do the predication. Results：The results of the prediction showed that the predictive precision of the conventional GM（1，1） was the second grade and those of the metabolic GM（1，1） and dynamic GM（1，1） were the first grade. The relative error of the predictive value in three models was 26.00%，5.07% and 4.06%. The metabolic GM（1，1） was applied to predict the mortality rate of lung cancer from 2011 to 2014 in Zigong city and the results were 81.31/100 000，95.88/100 000，113.06/100 000 and 133.32/100 000 respectively. Conclusion: The data of mortality in Zigong city is fluctuant，therefore，metabolic GM（1，1） is an applicable predicting method.