Cluster analysis of epidemic characteristics of hand-foot-and-mouth disease based on temporal characteristics

Abstract:

Objective：to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the hand-foot-and-mouth disease（HFMD） by di－viding different epidemic models according to the time series characteristics in 31 regions from 2010 to 2015. Methods：Time sequence features of HFMD incidence in different regions was extracted，including seasonal fluctuations，trends，autocorrelation and chaos，etc. Different time series epidemic patterns were divided by hierarchical clustering analysis. Results：Cluster analysis produced three types of epidemic patterns，namely，non-seasonal mode，single-season and multi-season seasonal pattern. Conclusion：For non-seasonal patterns，disease surveillance should be strengthened at any time to further analyzing the relevant factors. In the single-season and multi-season model，the appropriate preventive measures should be taken only in the high incidence period to reduce the possibility of a large area of epidemic disease.