Comparative study on assessment methods of epidemic risk of COVID-19 in Chongqing

Abstract:

Objective：To explore the assessment method of epidemic risk of coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19）. Methods： Chongqing was taken as study object and five vital influencing factors，including cumulative number of confirmed cases，cumulative new cases in the first 14 days，population density，intensity of population movement，and GDP，were collected. The risk level of 38 dis－tricts in Chongqing on February 17th and 26th were evaluated by using single index evaluation method，analytic hierarchy process （AHP） and hierarchical clustering method. Evaluation results of these three methods were compared. Results：On the whole，evalua－tion results of three methods were basically consistent. For example，Wanzhou District was a particularly high-risk area. On February 17th，there were six low-risk areas. On February 26th，there were 14 low-risk areas. Main urban areas（except Beibei District） were high-risk areas. There were more low-risk areas through AHP method when compared with single index evaluation method. However，results of clustering analysis method were quite different. Conclusion：The single index evaluation method is simple and clear，but on－ly the epidemic index is considered. The AHP method，which is slightly more complex，integrates opinions of experts in various fields and can be used to rank the risk degree of each region. The systematic clustering method emphasizes the similarity of overall feature，but lack of interpretability. In a word，results of three evaluation methods are reasonable. Relatively speaking，results of AHP is more reasonable，which is suggested to be the preferred method for the comprehensive analysis of COVID-19 epidemic risk.