Spatial epidemiological analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 in Guangdong Province

Abstract:

Objective：To explore the spatial distribution characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019（COVID-19） in Guangdong Province，and to investigate the effect of social factors on the epidemic degree based on geographic information system. Methods：Re－ported case information of COVID-19 in Guangdong Province from January 19 to February 18，2020 was collected. The migration of epidemic gravity center and the spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 were explored. Data on four social factors were collected： population density，GDP per capita，population migration index and city travel intensity during the same period. Then，the influence of social fac－tors on the prevalence of COVID-19 was explored by geographically weighted regression model. Results：Up to February 18，a total of 1，331 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong Province and the epidemic gravity center of COVID-19 was always migrating in the Pearl River Delta region. Since February 2，the COVID-19 showed obvious spatial aggregation. A positive correlation was observed between the epidemic of COVID-19 relationship and social factors. Conclusion：Although spatial clusters of COVID-19 in Guangdong still exist，high-incidence areas are few and are limited to the Pearl River Delta. In addition，three social factors including GDP per capita，population inflow index and city travel have a greater impact on the prevalence of COVID-19 in Pearl River Delta region.