A retrospective cohort study on the relationship between triglyceride and type 2 diabetes mellitus

Abstract:

Objective：To explore the relationship between triglyceride（TG） and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus（T2DM） in Chinese population. Methods：This study was a retrospective cohort study. A total of 211 833 participants were included in the study and completed at least two follow-up visits within 5 years. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the independent relationship between the continuous variables TG and TG tri-groups and the T2DM risk，and to calibrate the potential confounding factors. This study used a generalized additive model to identify whether there was a nonlinear relationship，and used the principle based on the maximum likelihood method to automatically calculate the critical point of the threshold effect through recursive experiments. Results：The Cox proportional hazard regression model adjusted for various possible influencing factors，showing that TG could be used as a risk factor for T2DM events（HR=1.20，95%CI=1.15-1.24，P<0.001）. There was a non-linear relationship between TG and the risk of T2DM. The inflection point of TG calculated by piecewise linear regression model was 1.27 mmol/L（P<0.001 for log-likelihood ratio test）. On the left side of the critical point，TG was significantly positively correlated with the incidence of T2DM（HR=2.30，95%CI=1.89-2.79，P<0.001）. On the right side of the critical point，the relationship between TG and the risk of T2DM tended to be saturated（HR=1.08，95%CI=1.03-1.13，P<0.001）. Conclusion：TG can be used as a risk factor for the occur－rence of T2DM events in the Chinese population，and there is a non-linear relationship and a threshold saturation effect between TG levels and the occurrence of T2DM events.